Through the first three weeks of the NFL season, we’ve collected a sample of data to test with. I don’t think we possess enough to create positive conclusions, but we have enough to discuss what’s been good, bad, and who is already gearing up for a 2026 NFL Mock Draft.
The Good
Tinseltown Trenches
Death, taxes, and Harbaugh teams built on size. The lines on both sides of the ball have been a critical part of the Chargers being an early AFC favorite. On offense, they’ve kept Herbert healthy, resulting in the second-best passing attack. Defensively, their pass rush aids the secondary, allowing an average target depth of 3.2 yards. Translation: the pass rush gets home quickly, forcing short routes. Sticky coverage prevents low success rates. Those two added together? The fewest passing yards in the league so far.
Indiana Jones
Danny Dimes has turned his Dial of Destiny back to that one time he had a good playoff win. This inherits a topic for a different day, but the Kevin O’Connell school of broken QBs has reaped nothing but success. The AFC South is in a Temple of Doom. With Indianapolis’s roster, if they get a three-game division lead, they’ll have a hard time losing it.
Lightning McVay
Life is an everlasting highway of Sean McVay plugging and playing whoever and still winning. Despite a British-like collapse in Philadelphia, I still see the Rams as one of the NFC favorites to make the Super Bowl. Their disciplined defensive and offensive attacks are both analytically top 5. Combine that with surgical Stafford, and I think all 37 Rams fans will be highly pleased with this season.
The Bad
Arrowhead Anxiety
Honestly? I feel bad for Mahomes. The offensive line is not good, as they’re 25th in yards before contact. And his receiver group, led by an all-but-officially-retired Travis Kelce, creates less separation than that awkward PDA couple in high school. How do I bet on Tyreek Hill being here by Halloween?
The Trevor Venture
The uncomfortable conversation is inevitable: Trevor Lawrence has been underwhelming. He hasn’t progressed as a passer or while making his reads. He has a league-low passer rating of 57.2 when targeting his first read, a bottom-five turnover-worthy throw rate (12.5%), and a bottom-10 catchable throw rate on balls thrown 10+ yards (62.5%). Don’t try the protection excuse either — the offensive line holds the lowest pressure rate by 8 percentage points. It’s only Game 3, but at what point do we acknowledge this in unison?
Clipped Wings
You can’t convince me Jalen Hurts wasn’t calling his own shots in the second half of Week 3. In the first half, it was more of Kevin Patullo’s same: conservative, boring play-calling that doesn’t get playmakers open. Running uncreative concepts that don’t pick apart zones doesn’t produce results. In fact, sending all routes into the same boundary zones resulted in -1 net passing yard in the first half! In the second half, they went for 209 net yards and three touchdowns. Despite that finish, the Eagles need to figure out play-calling — and they need to do it QUICK.
The Ugly
In-the-Dust Bowl
Oh boy, where do I start? Not only does the Cowboys’ secondary allow the highest passer rating, but they also allow the most receiving yards. And here’s the funny thing — they’re not running complicated concepts. Eberflus mostly runs base Cover 2 and 3, concepts you learn in high school. Miscommunication in these tells me it will be a LONG season in the DFW area.
Fool’s Gold
San Francisco must have a legitimate curse. Nick Bosa, George Kittle, Brock Purdy, Mac Jones, Spencer Burford, Ricky Pearsall, and Brandon Aiyuk are all injured, which doesn’t include everybody. However, this isn’t new. In the 2022 NFC Championship, Brock Purdy blew up his arm. In the 2023 Super Bowl, Dre Greenlaw tore his ACL running onto the field. In the 2024 regular season, CMC hurt BOTH of his legs. Is this Oakland cursing San Francisco for taking the Warriors?
Mediocre Miami Vice Grip
It’s 7 a.m. in Miami. A young man (Dolphins fans) is emptying out of Club Space (2022–2024 seasons) and realizing the woman he met that night (Tua) isn’t what she seemed. I don’t see a Miami future with many of these players in it. Expect a Black Friday sale here soon.
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