The biggest tournament in American sports tips off this weekend. Magic is created, hearts are broken, and future accountants are immortalized.
Since everybody is an “expert” this time of year, allow me to contribute my two cents. I’m going to break this down into four sections:
- Teams I believe to be undervalued
- Teams I believe to be overvalued
- The team with the glass slipper
- My Final Four prediction
Undervalued Teams
Gonzaga
Mark Few’s squad is exactly what you’d expect from a Gonzaga roster: lots of experience, strong defense, and a dominant big. Oh wait, make that TWO dominant bigs.
Braden Huff is out for the first weekend (we’ll come back to that), but Graham Ike is still patrolling the paint. In what feels like year 17 for Ike, he has developed a strong defensive presence to complement his exceptional post scoring. This evolution, combined with guard Grant-Foster accumulating 36 blocks (yes, as a guard), has propelled the Zags to the 9th-best defense in KenPom.
Their exclusion from the coveted “Top 25 in KenPom for Offense and Defense” list is largely due to Huff’s knee injury, as they currently sit 29th offensively. Still, like all promising tournament teams, they have a favorable bracket. Opening with Kennesaw State before facing a mediocre BYU or Texas gives them a clear path through the first weekend, even without their star forward.
If the Spokane vets can survive the opening weekend, expect the Kennel Club to have a fun March.
Texas Tech
By the most reliable metric, my eyes, the Big 12 has been the gauntlet of college basketball. And Tech has been in the ring swinging. With wins over Houston, Arizona, Iowa State, Duke, and Baylor, this team has proven time and time again that they’re legit.
At first glance, fans might be discouraged. Yes, I know JT Toppin is a huge loss. I’m aware they dropped three straight to close the season, and only one of those quality wins came after the injury. Even so, this team remains loaded with talent.
Christian Anderson is a crafty, First-Team All-Big 12 guard who can knock down threes, command an offense, and get his own shot at will. With a bracket featuring Akron followed by another major program missing its top player, I believe there’s a stronger path than people expect for the Raiders to see Red.
Overvalued Teams
Alabama
Nate Oats has his fingerprints all over this team. Unfortunately, Aden Holloway had his fingerprints on two pounds of marijuana in his apartment, and he’ll most likely not put on the Crimson Tide uniform again. That loss limits Alabama’s high-powered offense from doing what it does best: scoring at will.
This team thrives in transition. Their wings provide solid defense, but the question remains: who controls the offense now? When opponents force the Tide to slow down, the mismatches begin to roll. Without Holloway, there isn’t an elite shot creator on the roster. Combine that with the 67th-ranked KenPom defense, and it’s hard to feel confident in this group.
Even if Bama handles business against Hofstra, they’ll face a well-oiled Texas Tech unit that ranks 12th in KenPom offensive rating. Tech has more star power, and I don’t see Alabama reaching the second weekend.
Kansas
I’m not bringing much journalistic value by rehashing Darryn Peterson’s drama. Everyone has already weighed in, and it’s well known that he’s coasting toward the lottery. Instead, I want to dig a little deeper.
The Jayhawks are extremely athletic this year. While raw athleticism translates to NBA potential, it doesn’t always translate to efficient offense. Sitting at 57th in KenPom offensive rating is a clear underperformance for this group. Even if Tre White can create opportunities, there are teams in this field that present serious matchup problems.
One of those teams is St. John’s, which will likely meet them in the second round. Ranked 12th in defensive rating, they impose physicality on every opponent. Birds can’t fly in Storms, even Red ones. I expect the Johnnies to make quick work of this squad.
Cinderella’s Slipper
Much like the previous sections, Cinderella runs are often a product of their bracket. The matchups have to align, especially in this NIL era. With that in mind, I believe VCU has drawn the most favorable path for a lower seed.
To begin, they face the Tar Heels. UNC lost by 24 to NC State and has looked inconsistent all season. Add in the injury concerns, and VCU could very well have the better Ram. Waiting in the next round? An Illinois team whose best conference win is Iowa.
VCU dominated its regular season, posting an average point differential near +11 per game. One of my favorite stats for this group is their FTA/FGA ratio, which sits at 0.437, which is 15th in the country. For roughly every two shots they take, they’re also getting to the free-throw line once. That’s a nightmare for opponents, as foul trouble can quickly derail tournament aspirations for higher seeds.
There’s a world where VCU is fueling TikTok edits for the next decade.
Final Four Prediction
Before I give my Final Four picks, I want to explain the thought process.
To start, I trust history. 22 of the last 23 champions ranked in the top 25 in both KenPom offensive and defensive ratings. This year, those teams include:
- Duke
- Michigan
- Arizona
- Florida
- Houston
- Iowa State
Beyond that, I believe that until the nation establishes guardrails around NIL, the gap between top-tier programs and the rest will continue to widen. Last year, all four No. 1 seeds reached the Final Four. Over the next few years, I expect that trend to continue.
Here are my picks from each region:
- East — Duke
- West — Arizona
- South — Houston
- Midwest — Michigan
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