Fanbases of struggling teams have a common war cry: “Fire the head coach!”
Whenever I hear this, I think of 1995 Bill Belichick, 1994 Pete Carroll, 2001 Tony Dungy, 2002 Jon Gruden, 2012 Andy Reid, and 2002 Tom Coughlin. You know why? Every one of those guys won a Super Bowl at their next destination.
This isn’t to say Brian Callahan will be a Super Bowl champion. However, it is to say this: why are head coaches always the first to go?
Lack of Ownership
Mike Vrabel was fired four years after taking the Tennessee Titans on a Cinderella waltz to the AFC Championship Game. According to ownership, the change required to propel Nashville’s football club to its first-ever Super Bowl win was the release of the coach who got them the second closest they’ve ever been. What an obvious move this was!
The 2021 NFL Coach of the Year was clearly at fault for the team being 7th in the NFL in dead cap, including spending 17% of their cap space on a 35-year-old Ryan Tannehill. Additionally, Vrabel should’ve been more proactive in using their $9.5 million in cap space and retaining young talent such as Azeez Al-Shaair. It wasn’t the fault of management or ownership, of course.
Yes, this is sarcasm. However, ownership is genuinely consistent in its lack of accountability. Often, it refuses to acknowledge the heavy part it plays in a team’s lack of success.
If Clay Bennett had allowed Sam Presti to pay James Harden, OKC might not have had to wait 13 more years for a championship. If the Eagles had stripped front office decision-making from Andy Reid earlier, they might not have had to wait for Nick Foles.
Let’s take a more current example. Woody Johnson has owned the Jets for 25 years and has reaped no significant success outside of two AFC Championship appearances during the Obama administration. In this period, there have been 8 GMs and 9 head coaches. Among this 25-year sample size, there is one constant.
Is that correlated with causation, or is it just an outlier?
What Makes a Talented Head Coach?
Imagine if the Lions had fired Dan Campbell after they started 0-8-1. Thankfully for Detroit, they had 20/20 vision — and gave him grace to build a culture of winning.
Notice that word: culture. In my eyes, that’s what defines a great head coach.
I mentioned earlier that Hackett showed terrible head coaching ability. Why’s that? His leadership didn’t breed a culture of success and confidence, and his in-game management was poor.
Regarding Campbell, Dan Skipper once said, “He understands people. As a former player, Dan knows there is life outside the facility. That matters in a football locker room.”
To emphasize that point, Penei Sewell added, “To the outside eyes, it may seem like it doesn’t matter. But to us, every game matters. We’re trying to chase greatness. We just stay true to ourselves. We follow a man that puts down a blueprint that we trust in.”
The answer to what makes a good head coach reveals what doesn’t. The reason Mike McDaniel may be fired before Thanksgiving won’t be due to his football knowledge. Whoever hires him will gain a football mastermind. However, McDaniel has lost the locker room. In his post-game pressers, you can hear the shakiness in his voice, and he avoids eye contact while his ‘star’ quarterback continues to defy the very definition of leadership.
Although Miami’s situation isn’t entirely his fault, he isn’t displaying the traits of a coach you want in the cold trenches of January.
In-game management matters, too. In my opinion, this is the second of two essential qualities a head coach must possess.
Returning to Dan Campbell, he’s in tune with analytics and in-game decision-making. According to ESPN, the Lions converted ~55.6% of their fourth-down attempts under Campbell from 2021 to 2024 (80 conversions on 144 tries). He understands the modern NFL and bases his game management on a contemporary code.
Reaching Equilibrium
We now have a formula to calculate great head coaches — and we’ve identified front office variables that can sabotage even the best of them. So, what’s the equilibrium ownership and coaching must reach to actually win games?
On the coaching side, it’s about building culture and identity — then hiring a staff that complements your weaknesses.
Andy Reid is an offensive-minded coach who preaches innovation, accountability, and consistency. This culture boosts confidence and allows players to destroy opponents on the gridiron. What does he surround himself with? A defensive coordinator like Steve Spagnuolo, who shares the same core values. That gives confidence to the locker room, allowing players to operate freely. Mahomes has autonomy over audibles, and the Chiefs’ defense is empowered to execute complex schemes with trust.
As for ownership?
There’s a song by Ludacris that came out in 2001 — and it rhymes with “Sooth Stitch.” That’s their responsibility.
Following the Commanders’ Wild Card win this past January, limited owner Magic Johnson said it took “New vision, new owner with a strategy, picking the right people… and then we all step out of the way and let them do their job.”
That quote explains why the world’s most valuable franchise, the Dallas Cowboys, hasn’t won a Super Bowl since 1995. If the owner refuses to fill the building with aligned, empowered people, the coach doesn’t matter. That kind of dysfunction has a ceiling, and it’s low.
Conclusion
Chris Grier has been the General Manager of the Miami Dolphins since 2016 and has been with the organization since 2000. Over that 25-year tenure, the Dolphins have had 5 winning seasons, made the playoffs 3 times, and walked away with as many playoff wins as I currently have.
Head coaches are often the first to go — because of ego and a lack of accountability. Ownership and management are often too timid to take real responsibility or make complex changes.
Unfortunately, many of these franchises will keep cycling through head coaches every 2–3 years until an ownership or front office shake-up occurs, no matter how talented the coach.
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