We men have fragile egos; I love being right. Whether it’s the restaurant I take my girlfriend to, predicting a movie’s theme, or especially sports betting—it’s an electric, toxic feeling to say, “I told you so.” I’m going to give you eight opportunities to say, “You should’ve listened to me,” to your friends in February, when the NFL MVP is revealed.
Top Contenders
Joe Burrow
If I were to throw my mortgage (a high possibility) on anybody this season, it’s Burrow. The number one reason? Narratives. Out of the four horsemen of QBs, he’s the representation of famine. There is no hardware in his case. That being said, with an offense tailored to his conquest in the war against the AFC, I could see him putting death to any murmurs of “overrated.”
Lamar Jackson
MV3 has a nice ring to it. Two things are true: he should not have won the 2023 MVP (more on that later), and he should have won the 2024 MVP. There’s no world where a 41-touchdown season with a 4:1 TD-to-interception ratio doesn’t win the award. The media will recognize this and be more favorable toward him this year. A top-3 offense, second year under Todd Monken, an improved receiving corps, and a healthy offensive line give Lamar an exceptional chance to get greedy with trophies.
Josh Allen
Reigning MVP, married to Hailee Steinfeld—what else could go wrong? Nothing! The Bills continue to build on a strong foundation. I have him at #3 because of the narratives above, but I wouldn’t be surprised if Josh went full Michael Jordan in ’96–’97.
Jalen Hurts
Now we get into first-time winner talks. If Jalen Hurts is at least the top-10 QB some people believe he is, there’s no reason he shouldn’t be in this conversation. He retains arguably the best offensive line in the league, easily the best running back, and weapons for an air assault that would make the U.S. military jealous. And here’s something nobody’s talking about: Kellen Moore was a terrible passing OC. The year after he left Dallas? Dak was MVP runner-up. He’s free from the cage of four curls in one play; I like Hurts’s odds.
Jayden Daniels
Honest question: has anyone in the history of our beautiful game had a better final college season and first NFL season than Jayden Daniels? Sixty touchdowns, Heisman winner in college, then Rookie of the Year, and leading a franchise to its first NFC Championship in over 30 years. What’s crazier? They got significantly better. I fully expect him to cross the Delaware to New York for the MVP ceremony.
Dark Horses
Dak Prescott
Non-ball-knowers will laugh and close the app. Real ones will get it. First, +3500 odds are insane. Second, the last time he was healthy, he was MVP runner-up—and should have won. In 2023, he had 300 more total yards and nine more touchdowns than Lamar. This season will look a lot like 2020. The defense won’t help him, but he’ll have an electric passing attack in primetime. In that infamous 2020 season, Dak had 1,900 yards through 4.5 games—on pace for a record-shattering 6,000 yards. This crusade for a lost artifact known as a “Cowboys Super Bowl” is on the shoulders of this outlawed marksman.
Matthew Stafford
In the 1953 western film Shane, the title character is drawn out for one last gunfight. He slaughters the antagonists and ends the story as a hero. Matt Stafford is my +4000 odds Shane. Kyren, Puka, Davante, a strong interior line, and Sean McVay make me believe he’s got one more in the chamber.
Ja’Marr Chase
It’s a QB-prioritized award, so I should be realistic and give only QB picks. But I’m obligated to throw a fade to a position player—and Ja’Marr always comes down with that pass. The Bengals offense will be a juggernaut, and this top-2 talent could have a record-breaking season. At +10,000 to +20,000 odds, what’s the harm in betting on the LSU legend to become the first WR ever to win the award?
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