When evaluating teams, I go by a simple method: by Thanksgiving, teams are who they are. Injuries have happened, game plans have been executed or exposed, and players are about as good as they’ll be for the season. By this point, we’ve seen enough to analyze the data and form an identity for each squad. Here’s who I believe are the contenders and pretenders heading into Week 12 of the 2025 NFL season.
Contenders
Los Angeles Rams
Don’t be surprised if McVay reaches his third Super Bowl in seven years. With no Hollywood stars on strike, LA’s defense is stealing the spotlight—allowing the second-fewest points per game. Their stingy run defense consistently forces third-and-longs, setting up the pass rush to wreak havoc.
On offense? The lead character of this top-five unit is none other than future Hall of Famer Matt Stafford. The threat of his arm sets up the Kyren Williams subplot—he’s already pushing 1,000 total yards and has 9 touchdowns on the year.
New England Patriots
Ever since the North Carolinian shipped up to Boston, we’ve all been Drake Maye fans. Through 11 games, he’s totaled 3,123 yards, 22 touchdowns, and only five interceptions.
What impresses me most? He’s leading the league with a 72% completion rate—despite throwing to a receiving corps with no top-tier talents. Add in a top-10 defense and a coach who brings culture and pedigree, and I see this team sticking around for a long time.
Seattle Seahawks
This season feels like 2021–22 all over again. It’ll be a Super Bowl with an NFC West team—and whoever can beat the struggling Chiefs. JSN is the best receiver in football this year, and it’s not particularly close. Sam Darnold has been a big part of that, ranking second in completion percentage.
Defensively, the Seahawks are generating a 40% pressure rate—while blitzing just 19% of the time. The second-highest pressure rate with the second-lowest blitz rate? Who would’ve thought? I’m sticking to the formula: if you’re top 5–10 on both sides of the ball, you’re a contender. That’s because the last Super Bowl Champion not to meet this criteria was the 2015 Denver Broncos, and they still had Peyton Manning’s brain and the best defense in football.
Pretenders
Philadelphia Eagles
This isn’t biased hate—I promise. Kevin Patullo is killing this team. Two things can be true: this is the most talented roster in the league, and yet, they’ve got major leadership issues.
An offense this loaded shouldn’t rank 25th in total offense and 16th in points per game. And now, credible sources close to the team are hinting at locker room problems, which are reportedly stemming from Jalen Hurts’s struggles with passing. Come January, the Seahawks, Rams, or 49ers could all knock this team out.
Denver Broncos
Here’s the pattern: talented offenses not producing. But this one falls squarely on Bo Nix. The rookie gunslinger would lose almost every standoff this year—he’s 29th in completion percentage (61.2%) and only scoring 23 PPG.
Despite the offense’s lack of production, this might be the best statistical pass rush in history. They record a sack 12% of the time and hold opponents to 185 passing yards per game. Still, I wouldn’t put money on Bo Nix to lead anyone to the promised land.
Jacksonville Jaguars
Trevor Lawrence has quietly become one of the most disappointing draft picks in recent memory. He couldn’t hit water jumping out of a boat—he’s sitting at 33rd in completion percentage (59.8%), and there are only 32 teams.
These three teams all boast elite defenses, but it doesn’t matter. If your QB can’t walk a team down the field in the fourth quarter, you’re a January pretender. Simple as that. Strapsonville can’t save them, and I think Liam Coen tries to find a different leader at Q in the offseason.
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